German Weekend

[chriscol]

i have one unusual early play, but there is a big story in germany right now, which i think will affect line and outcome.

1. Bundesliga

Sunday:

Hamburg- Leverkusen: Leverkusen pk,+0.5 @ 2.01 !! 2 units!!

on monday that line would have been probably right, but lot has changed since than.
Hamburg s key midfield player van der Vaart is rumored to be transferred to Valencia. As the rumors became stronger Monday/Tuesday dutch and spanish press wrote already that he would bein spain for the weekend and Hamburg team management confirmed there was an of Valencia on the table, which they denied.than van der Vaart gave an interview to a Hamburg newspaper on tuesday that he is very upset about the management and he desperately wants to go to Valencia and it would even hurt him big time, if the deal doesnt take place.
Than on Wednesday night he was sitting together with the manager and the manager said that van der Vaart understands now that he cannot leave and a transfer is out of discussion.
Meanwhile van der Vaart gave in interview to a spanish radio station saying: "i have to put big pressure on Hamburg, and i will be in Valencia for the weekend"...next thing happening: he injured himself last night in the back by lifting his 1 year old child and could not play in today s Uefa-cup match..he was douptful up to the last minute, but he did not play.
Background of this is, that in case he would have played he could not start for Valencia in Champ.league this year...now he can.
Hamburg is trounced with this situation as Boulharouz got "fake" injured last year just before their ECL qualifier just to announce a day later he is going to Chelsea.
Now to my play: Van der Vaart is the main key player for Hamburg. He had some injury problems last year and without him Hamburg could not get one win last season in 10 games..with him they were a complete different team (if you calculate the points they gained in the matches with him they would have finished 4th in league). Hamburg is missing any offensive creativity without him. the strikers dont get a ball and cannot create chances. This happend almost half the season last year...today they played a crappy Hungarian site and they could not create one real scoring chance the whole match in a 0-0 draw.
The line does not reflect anything yet.. i strongly believe that he will not be in Hmaburg on sunday, but even if he is still here there is no way the management and coach would let him play..there is so much hate and anger going on in Hamburg right now. i think the fans would kill him if he turns up in the stadium.
What also helps for the pick the Leverkusen is a very solid team and capble of winning in Hamburg anyway.
i expect the line to close at pk due to whatever is going to happen over the next days, but at pk i would make it a strong Leverkusen play in this situation.
No way Leverkusen is losing here with so much distraction going on in Hamburg and against a helpless team. So grab the +0.25 now.

BOL and see you all tomorrow for friday s games.

 

[MrCleo]

thanks for the tip

 

[Costanza]

nice read !
thanks for inorming us Chriscol and good luck with the bet.

 

[chriscol]

Friday

2. Bundesliga

Koblenz- Augsburg: over 2.5 @2.02

what can i say? Koblenz lost first game at Mainz 1-4 and Augsburg lost at home to München 2-6.
Although it s a different game, both teams have shown big weakness on defense, but they are also capable of scoring..until their defenses have settled down i ll go with the over.

Wehen- Osnabrück: Over 2.5 @2.04

Both teams coming up from Regionalliga have started with a win. Wehen won 3-2 at Hoffenheim after being 0-2 down and Osnabrück won 2-1 vs. Freiburg. Both team will go for the win here and both defensive lines will not be able to shut the other down.

That s it for today. No play on 1. Bundesliga.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

rec so far this season after friday s plays (pushes recorded as no play)

1. Bundesliga 4 - 3 -0.85 units
2. Bundesliga 3 - 3 -0.02 units
Regionalliga 5 - 2 +1.26 units

Total 12 - 8 +0.39 units

Saturday

Regionballiga Nord:

Düsseldorf- Bremen: Düsseldorf -0.5 @ 1.92

Düsseldorf with a very solid start so far getting 7 points from 3 matches against very solid opposition. They are one of my favs for promotion. Bremen on the other hand is struggeling a bit in league play.they are supposed one of the midfield teams in league, but have trouble right now as many regular players have to play for the Bundesliga team as they have big injury problems.

Regionalliga Süd:

Reutlingen- Sandhausen : under 2.5 @ 1.76

What can i say..Reutlingen 3 matches all three 0-0..so you know what you can expect..very solid defense and not much offensive power. Sandhausen won twice at home 3-0, but lost 0-1 during the week at Burghausen the first very solid defernsive team they play this season. it should be very tough for them to score here.

Aalen- Oggerheim: Aalen -1 @ 2.08

Aalen is a solid Regionalliga team off a solid start with 2 wins and one away loss. But this is more a play against Oggerheim. As i stated the last two weeks , coming up from 4th division, they have not adjusted to this league yet. from 3 games 0-7 goals and 3 losses. so i ride this until i see improvement.

Burghausen- Stuttgart: Under 2.5 @1.90 !! 2 units!!

Burghausen is the only perfect team so far in league with 3 wins..but this is all based on solid defense as they won twice 1-0 and once 2-0. They still have trouble scoring, but their defense is awsome. Stuttgart also played 3 unders so far having two 2-0 wins and a 0-1 loss.it will be a tight match between two solid teams but this should help the under even more.

 

[chriscol]

1. Bundesliga

i really like this card today !!!

Bremen- München: München -0.5 @ 2.05 !! 2 units!!

Much is written about this supposed top match. It s the return of start striker Klose to Bremen after he left with many disputes in the off season to Bayern.
Bremen has big,big injury problems right now. 8 key players are out with injury. they got a very lucky 2-2 at Bochum last week and which they were really outplayed. They had a very luck 2-1 win on Wednesday vs. Zagreb in ECL-qualy. this match has shown all their weakness at the moment. Very vulnurable on defense..lacking creativity in forward motion due to injured players. They came back on wednesday froma 0-1 HT deficit with a big fighting efford. No way that would have happened against a better side than Zagreb. This big efford should also have tired the legs off the remaining players..all not good factor when you are facing a high powering and already very confiden a nd clicking München team.
München won already in league come at Bremen and outplayed them completely..they are on a mission in this is a statement game for them.
Klose and Lucca Toni plying great on offense and basically everybody is playing great right now. i dont see a chance for Bremen here this early in the season.
The over is also a good option but i am scared the Bremen could get shut out.

Schalke- Dortmund: Schalke -0.5 @1.89 !! 2 units!! and over 2.5,3 @1.93 !! 2 units!!

This is the biggest derby in german football. i think it s even bigger than celtic/Rangers in scotland, but at least similar rivalary.
Schalke is simply the better team right now. they played a solid 2-2 away at Stuttgart to start the season, while Dortmund struggled to fit in the new players and lost at home to just promoted Duisburg 1-3.
It s a derby and that why we see a -0.5, otherwise it would be more like -0.75 for sure.
The over is also a big play as coach Doll keeps on saying that he want to play attractive football (as he did with all his former teams). I won with that over last week (although i did not expect Duisburh to bring he ovr), but it has shown that they are very vulnurable on defense, but still able to create scoring chances (especially in a derby like that). Schalke meanwhile has shown also during last weeks macth that they ahve big scoring power , but als missing their usual defensive strength that early in the season.
I think i ve never had two 2 unit plays on one match before, but i see a 2-1 or 3-1 Schalke win very likely.

 

[chriscol]

Berlin- Stuttgart: Stuttgart pk,-0.5 @1.95

i said last week that Berlin is fading material early in the season and they lost 0-1 at Frankfurt in a terrible efford. the coach is still saying the players he has right now are not strong enough, so i expect much of the same today. Especially against a very solid Stuttgart team, which actually played very well in their season opener 2-2 vs. Schalke. Very good chance for away win here.

Bielefeld- Frankfurt: Bielefeld -0.5,pk @ 1.86

I also said last week that Frankfurt is big time fading material, but still played them as Berlin is even worde. that turned out to be exactly right. so dont over-value their home win last week.today they have even more trouble as their only remaining striker amanatidis is out with injury..so no offensive options left. i have no idea who can score here for Frankfurt.
Bielefeld is off a surprising win at 3-1 at Wolfsburg, in which they outplayed the other team completely thru-out the match. Teams seems to be clicking and having fun. That s always a good sign. At home they are usually solid and should be able to score vs. Frankfurt, which should be enough for the win.

BOL to all

 

[rolltide]

nicely done with the 2u plays! appreciate the previews...thx

 

[Costanza]

excellent stuff chriscol !
really nice results today, big thanks

 

[chriscol]

very strong day yesterday going 7-3 +7.04 units.

Sunday

1. Bundesliga

Hamburg- Leverkusen: Leverkusen still pending (write up at top of thread)

some updates: the latest news were that coach said yesterday fans should not boo van der Vaart if he is in stadium or even playing, becaus ehe would do evereything for the team.But almost at same time there was a foto in spanish newspaper AS showing van der Vaart presenting the Valencia team jersey with the quote that he will be latest end of august playing for them.
It s very doubtful if he willplay today...the club does not release any news about the status of his injury to calm the situation down, but i really cant imagine seeing him on the pitch.
In other team new: Trochowski, german international, who replaced van der Vaart in midfield during the week at Budapest is out injured.
So even if van der Vaart is playing i still like the Leverkusen play with all the trouble surrounding the team.

Cottbus- Bochum: Bochum pk,+0.5 @1.85

There is not much between the teams. Bochum played very well against bremen last week, while Cottbus was very lucky to escape witha draw at Leverkusen. Bochum s a dangerous away team and although a draw is very likely they have a good chance of winning here.

2. Bundesliga:
No plays

Regionalliga Nord:

Dortmund- Essen: Essen pk @1.85

Both teams not off good starts. Essen started as a pre-season fav in this league but got just 1 pont from 3 games. Dortmund not much better. I think that s the spot for Essen to get back on track. Dortmund had quite a few players involved in yesterday s Bundesliga team squad.

Wolfsburg- Erfurt: over 2.5,3 @2.1

Wolfsburg coming up from 4th division was by far the highest scoring team last year.
Same is showing this season so far. Results were 2-3 and 3-2.. Erfurt the league leader so far had results of 6-3,1-1,3-0...so a lot of scoring and weak defending going on for both teams. That should bring an easy over.

BOL to all

 

[Primož]

ANY THOUGHTS ON COTTBUS/BOCHUM OVER 2,5:ughhh:
​

 

[Preussen]

ANY THOUGHTS ON COTTBUS/BOCHUM OVER 2,5:ughhh:​

Both not exactly offensive-minded teams in my opinion. Personally I believe a scoreless draw is more likely than 3+ goals so I will certainly not bet on the over, but I'm not a real capper, perhaps Chriscol sees things differently.

 

[chriscol]

over Bochum/Cottbus:

i see it a bit different as i am pretty sure there will be scoring.
It s two teams who will play against relegation whole season. So it s an important match for both to go for the win against somewhat similar opposition.
Therfore i like Cottbus to attack, especially at home, which should open up some space for Bochum on counter attack. Bochum is actually one of the teams in league like Bielefels, which i like playing away...they can always loose, but if somehow scoring first they are very dangerous and can get a win anywhere.
Both teams, as supposed, bottom teams have their defensive strength , when they are totally focussing on that part of the game, like Cottbus did last week at Leverkusen, but they are still struggeling on defense (that s why they are expect to be at the bottom), when opening up a bit and that s what i expect today as they both should feel like a win is possible.

Summarized..the over 2.5 is dangerous as i can see a 1-1 draw, but i like it more than going under here.

 

[chriscol]

van der Vaart will play in the starting team, but i still like the play.

BOL to all

 

[Preussen]

Okay, I was wrong, as usual - the Over already hit in the Cottbus-Bochum game after 50 min...

 

[rolltide]

hopefully can snag a goal late to tie it up. hsv very dominant should be up 3 or 4-0

 

[MrCleo]

bogus handball

 

[chriscol]

shit...van der vaart in the team changes everything...much more offensive power. win (and my loss) was truely deserved.
Leverkusen has some serious trouble scoring so far this season.

rec after a nice weekend

rec so far this season after friday s plays (pushes recorded as no play)

1. Bundesliga 8 - 6 +2.24 units
2. Bundesliga 3 - 3 -0.02 units
Regionalliga 9 - 3 +5.16 units

Total 20 - 12 +7.38 units

 

[Costanza]

Really nice winning weekend Chriscol !
thank you

 

[JohnMolson]

anything on Koln/Aachen Chriscol. I'm considering a play on the over